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Ukraine’s Zelensky set to address Congress in first foreign trip since Russian invasion

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In his first known trip abroad since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to arrive in Washington on Wednesday to meet with President Biden and address a joint session of Congress.

U.S. officials kept details of his visit under wraps given the security fears. Despite the heavy shroud placed over Zelensky’s plans, it was widely reported he would travel to Washington to visit Capitol Hill and appear at the White House.

Zelensky’s visit, his second to the United States as president, comes as lawmakers are preparing to vote on a $1.7-trillion end-of-year funding bill that includes nearly $45 billion in emergency economic and security assistance to Ukraine, $8 billion more than Biden had requested from Congress last month.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) emphasized that lawmakers should make an effort to appear in-person for Wednesday’s session.

“We are ending a very special session of the 117th Congress with legislation that makes progress for the American people as well as support for our Democracy,” Pelosi wrote to colleagues in a letter Tuesday. “Please be present for a very special focus on Democracy Wednesday night.”

Zelensky will appear before House Republicans, some of whom have expressed interest in restricting aid to Ukraine when they take over the lower chamber in January. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) has said his party would not “write a blank check to Ukraine,” raising concerns about Washington’s ability to help Kyiv fend off Russia in the months ahead.

World & Nation

Ukraine’s Zelensky rallies forces in combat zone as Putin does the same in Russia

President Volodymyr Zelensky visits the city of Bakhmut, whose retention by Ukrainian forces has stymied Moscow’s goal of capturing the entire Donbas.

Dec. 20, 2022

This trip would mark the first known time that Zelensky has left Ukraine since the war started Feb. 24. His determination to remain in Kyiv even as it came under attack — and as his Russian enemies claimed he had fled — and his nightly video addresses lent succor to his people and emboldened Ukrainian defenders of their land. He repeatedly refuted Russian propaganda by showing up in parts of Ukraine with a video camera in tow.

The visit also comes as Ukrainian pleas for long-range Patriot surface-to-air, antiaircraft missiles are gaining traction, with an announcement of a U.S. decision to supply the sophisticated weaponry expected as early as this week. Zelensky may believe his presence could seal the deal.

Zelensky’s appearances on the front lines, in subway stations where Ukrainians huddled in fear and even in the most war-ravaged towns like Bucha, site of enormous alleged atrocities against Ukrainian civilians by Russian troops, served as the consummate morale booster for a population that believes it is fighting for its identity.

His risky departure from the country — with an equally perilous return — comes as a surprising detour from that campaign. Zelensky may have felt it necessary to make a more forceful, personal appeal for additional U.S. weapons and other aid at a time when a soon-to-be Republican-dominated House has floated ideas of limiting such assistance.

Zelensky’s visit was first reported by Punchbowl News.

His determination to speak out for Ukraine has earned him international accolades, including Time Magazine person of the year, which said he embodied the “spirit” of a country that broke away from the former Soviet Union and now is besieged by a Russian leader who believes it should never have been allowed to separate.

U.S. officials did not supply details on how Zelensky was traveling. Numerous high-level delegations, including the prime ministers of neighboring European countries, Pelosi and U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, have ventured into Ukraine by train, traveling from Poland to Kyiv in relative safety.

But security is a shifting condition, and in recent weeks, the Russian military has escalated air strikes on numerous civilian targets across Ukraine including electrical grids, plunging much of the country’s population into darkness and cold as winter engulfs the region.

From the start of the war, Zelensky said he was Russia’s No. 1 target for assassination, and that seemed possible as the Kremlin’s troops sought — and ultimately failed — to conquer Kyiv.

Earlier Tuesday, in another display of his flair for combat-zone drama, Zelensky showed up in Bakhmut, an eastern city under one of the most intensive Russian onslaughts in recent days. Russian forces were trying to encircle the city, 380 miles east of Kyiv, in their broader goal of seizing all of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

Zelensky’s appearance was seen as another effort to boost morale. For the Russians, capturing Bakhmut would open a route for Russian forces to press on toward cities in the eastern region that remain in Ukrainian hands. Mercenaries from the Wagner Group, a shadowy paramilitary organization led by a Russian oligarch close to Russian President Vladimir Putin, are reported to be leading the Russian offensive in Bakhmut.

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Courtney Subramanian is a White House reporter for the Los Angeles Times in Washington, D.C.

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Zelenskyy’s European tour aimed to replenish Ukraine’s arsenal and build political support

FILE - Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, second right, gestures as he leaves after receiving the International Charlemagne Prize in Aachen, Germany, Sunday, May 14, 2023. Zelenskyy set off across Europe with a long shopping list. Ukraine’s president will head home with much of what he wanted – though not the Western fighter jets he seeks to defend against Russian air attacks. (AP Photo/Michael Probst, File)

Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, left, and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, walk in the garden at Chequers, the prime minister’s official country residence, in Aylesbury, England, Monday, May 15, 2023. Zelenskyy set off across Europe with a long shopping list. Ukraine’s president will head home with much of what he wanted – though not the Western fighter jets he seeks to defend against Russian air attacks. (Carl Court/Pool via AP)

FILE - This image made available by Vatican News shows Pope Francis meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a private audience at The Vatican, Saturday, May 13, 2023. (Vatican News via AP, File)

FILE - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy leaves after meeting with Pope Francis at The Vatican, Saturday, May 13, 2023. Zelenskyy set off across Europe with a long shopping list. Ukraine’s president will head home with much of what he wanted – though not the Western fighter jets he seeks to defend against Russian air attacks. (AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia, File)

Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, right, and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, talk during a press conference in the garden at Chequers, the prime minister’s official country residence, in Aylesbury, England, Monday, May 15, 2023. (Carl Court/Pool via AP)

FILE - Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni, right, meets Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at Chigi Palace, Government’s office, in Rome, Saturday, May 13, 2023. Zelenskyy set off across Europe with a long shopping list. Ukraine’s president will head home with much of what he wanted – though not the Western fighter jets he seeks to defend against Russian air attacks. (AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino, File)

Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, right, and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, look out towards trees planted by Winston Churchill as they walk in the garden at Chequers, the prime minister’s official country residence, in Aylesbury, England, Monday, May 15, 2023. (Carl Court/Pool via AP)

FILE - People holding Ukrainian flags and a sign reading “Welcome President. Glory to Ukraine” gather for the motorcade of Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy, in downtown Rome, Saturday, May 13, 2023. Zelenskyy set off across Europe with a long shopping list. Ukraine’s president will head home with much of what he wanted – though not the Western fighter jets he seeks to defend against Russian air attacks. (Mauro Scrobogna/LaPresse via AP, File)

FILE - From left, the flags of Germany, Ukraine and Europe wave in the wind in front of the Federal Chancellery during the visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in Berlin, Sunday, May 14, 2023. Zelenskyy set off across Europe with a long shopping list. Ukraine’s president will head home with much of what he wanted – though not the Western fighter jets he seeks to defend against Russian air attacks. (Kay Nietfeld/dpa via AP, File)

FILE - This image made available by Vatican News shows Pope Francis meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a private audience at The Vatican, Saturday, May 13, 2023. Zelenskyy set off across Europe with a long shopping list. Ukraine’s president will head home with much of what he wanted – though not the Western fighter jets he seeks to defend against Russian air attacks. (Vatican News via AP, File)

FILE - Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz, right, stands with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the podium during an official military reception at the chancellery in Berlin, Germany, Sunday, May 14, 2023. Zelenskyy set off across Europe with a long shopping list. Ukraine’s president will head home with much of what he wanted – though not the Western fighter jets he seeks to defend against Russian air attacks. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber, File)

FILE - A sharpshooter looks out from a roof ahead of a ceremony to award the International Charlemagne Prize in Aachen, Germany, Sunday, May 14, 2023. Zelenskyy set off across Europe with a long shopping list. Ukraine’s president will head home with much of what he wanted – though not the Western fighter jets he seeks to defend against Russian air attacks. (AP Photo/Michael Probst, File)

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, leaves following his meeting with Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, at Chequers, the prime minister’s official country residence, in Aylesbury, England, Monday, May 15, 2023. Zelenskyy set off across Europe with a long shopping list. Ukraine’s president will head home with much of what he wanted – though not the Western fighter jets he seeks to defend against Russian air attacks. (Carl Court/Pool via AP)

FILE - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, center, receives the Charlemagne Prize for Services to European Unity from the Lord Mayor of Aachen Sibylle Keupen, right, in Aachen, Germany, Sunday, May 14, 2023. Zelenskyy set off across Europe with a long shopping list. Ukraine’s president will head home with much of what he wanted – though not the Western fighter jets he seeks to defend against Russian air attacks. (Federico Gambarini/DPA via AP, Pool, File)

FILE - Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz, right, and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy address a media conference at the chancellery in Berlin, Germany, Sunday, May 14, 2023. Zelenskyy set off across Europe with a long shopping list. Ukraine’ s president will head home with much of what he wanted – though not the Western fighter jets he seeks to defend against Russian air attacks. (AP Photo/Matthias Schrader, File)

FILE - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, center, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, left, review the honor guard at the Federal Chancellery in Berlin, Sunday, May 14, 2023. European leaders promised Zelenskyy missiles, tanks and drones during a whirlwind three-day visit to Italy, Germany, France and the U.K. that sought to replenish Ukraine’s depleted weapons supplies ahead of a spring offensive aimed at turning the tide of the war. (Wolfgang Kumm/dpa via AP, File)

FILE - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sits in a car outside Bellevue Palace after meeting German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, in Berlin, Sunday, May 14, 2023. European leaders promised Zelenskyy missiles, tanks and drones during a whirlwind three-day visit to Italy, Germany, France and the U.K. that sought to replenish Ukraine’s depleted weapons supplies ahead of a spring offensive aimed at turning the tide of the war. (Christophe Gateau/Pool Photo via AP, File)

FILE - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, sits in a Federal Police helicopter after talks with Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin, Germany, Sunday, May 14, 2023. European leaders promised Zelenskyy missiles, tanks and drones during a whirlwind three-day visit to Italy, Germany, France and the U.K. that sought to replenish Ukraine’s depleted weapons supplies ahead of a spring offensive aimed at turning the tide of the war. (Christophe Gateau/dpa via AP, File)

FILE - French President Emmanuel Macron, right, welcomes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Elysee palace in Paris, Sunday, May 14, 2023. European leaders promised Zelenskyy missiles, tanks and drones during a whirlwind three-day visit to Italy, Germany, France and the U.K. that sought to replenish Ukraine’s depleted weapons supplies ahead of a spring offensive aimed at turning the tide of the war. (AP Photo/Michel Euler, File)

FILE - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, rear second right, attends the award ceremony of the Charlemagne Prize in Aachen, Germany, Sunday, May 14, 2023. European leaders promised Zelenskyy missiles, tanks and drones during a whirlwind three-day visit to Italy, Germany, France and the U.K. that sought to replenish Ukraine’s depleted weapons supplies ahead of a spring offensive aimed at turning the tide of the war.(Federico Gambarini/DPA via AP, Pool, File)

FILE - A Gendarme shows the way to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as he arrives at the Elysee palace in Paris, , Sunday, May 14, 2023. European leaders promised Zelenskyy missiles, tanks and drones during a whirlwind three-day visit to Italy, Germany, France and the U.K. that sought to replenish Ukraine’s depleted weapons supplies ahead of a spring offensive aimed at turning the tide of the war. (AP Photo/Michel Euler, File)

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LONDON (AP) — Volodymyr Zelenskyy set off across Europe with a long shopping list. Ukraine’s president will head home with much of what he wanted — though not the Western fighter jets he seeks to defend against Russian air attacks.

European leaders promised Zelenskyy an arsenal of missiles, tanks and drones during a whirlwind three-day visit to Italy, the Vatican, Germany, France and the U.K. that sought to replenish Ukraine’s depleted weapons supplies ahead of a long-anticipated spring offensive aimed at turning the tide of the war.

The trip was also about shoring up European political and military support for the longer term, to ensure Ukraine can hold any ground it takes back and press for a favorable peace.

“They’ve got to show … they’re in this conflict for the long term and that they’re able to keep sustaining this effort,” said Justin Crump, a former British tank commander who heads security consultancy Sibylline. “It’s not going to be one shot and done.”

Zelenskyy’s energetic international diplomacy over 15 months of war has persuaded Ukraine’s Western allies to send ever more powerful weapons, from German Leopard tanks to U.S. Patriot missile systems and Storm Shadow cruise missiles from the U.K.

Pressing his case to European leaders in person shows Zelenskyy’s growing confidence about traveling abroad. It’s also an attempt to get his “ducks in a row” as Ukraine prepares a push to reclaim territory seized by Russia, said Patrick Bury, senior lecturer in security at the University of Bath.

Bury said that if Ukraine launches an offensive “and it doesn’t go well, there might be a drop off in support and more pressure to negotiate. I think he’s just trying to bind in for as long as he possibly can as much support as he can from the West.”

On Monday, the U.K. pledged hundreds more air defense missiles, as well as attack drones with a range of more than 200 kilometers (120 miles).

France, where Ukraine’s leader met President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday , said it would supply Ukraine with dozens of light tanks and armored vehicles, along with unspecified air defense systems.

Zelenskyy also visited Germany for talks with Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose initial reluctance to provide Ukraine with lethal weapons was a source of frustration in Kyiv. Now, Germany has become one of the biggest arms suppliers to Ukraine, including battle tanks and the sophisticated IRIS-T SLM air-defense system.

During Zelenskyy’s visit Germany announced another 2.7 billion euros ($3 billion) worth of equipment, including tanks, anti-aircraft systems and ammunition.

But Zelensky’s aim of forming an international “fighter jet coalition” to supply Ukraine with planes has run up against NATO concern about escalating the alliance’s role in the war. Ukraine wants U.S.-made F-16s to supplement its Soviet-era jets, but Washington has resisted calls to send them.

“We want to create a jet coalition and I am very positive about it,” Zelenskyy said Monday after meeting British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. But, he added: “We have to work a little bit more on it.”

Sunak said Britain wants to help Ukraine acquire jets, but “it’s not a straightforward thing.”

The U.K. does not have any F-16s, but says it will give Ukrainian pilots basic training on Western-standard jets starting this summer.

Germany’s Scholz was evasive when asked about planes, referring instead to the anti-aircraft system it has provided to Kyiv.

“That’s what we as Germany are now concentrating on,” he said.

The flurry of announcements from Europe’s capitals is part diplomatic theater. Ukraine gets a steady flow of equipment from the West, and some of the weapons announced this week may already have been on the way. Zelenskyy’s trip was about securing supplies for the long term, as well as the imminent offensive.

“They should be able to carry out the offensive with what they already have, but that’s not enough to sustain it over the long term,” said retired French Vice Adm. Michel Olhagaray, a former head of France’s center for higher military studies. “And they’ll need the long term to make the Russians crack.”

Zelenskyy began his European tour Saturday in Rome, where he received a hearty commitment from Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni — and a more nuanced and less welcome message from Pope Francis.

Calling Zelenskyy her friend and emphasizing their personal rapport, Meloni promised to provide Ukraine with whatever it needs to win the war and said any compromise to accept an “unjust peace” was unacceptable for Ukraine and Italy, and dangerous for the rest of Europe.

“We cannot call ‘peace’ something that could resemble an invasion,” she told reporters, as Zelenskyy nodded along in agreement.

Zelenskyy also visited the Vatican to meet Pope Francis, who stressed the need for “gestures of humanity” toward the most vulnerable and innocent victims of the conflict.

While Francis has frequently prayed for the “martyred” Ukrainian people, he has also lamented the Russian mothers who have lost their sons. The equivalence, and Francis’ reluctance to outright condemn Russia, is part of the Vatican’s tradition of neutrality in conflicts.

Zelenskyy made clear he didn’t appreciate Francis’ emphasis on both Russian and Ukrainian victims of the war, tweeting: “there can be no equality between the victim and the aggressor.”

It was a reminder that Ukraine faces a political as well as a military battle. In Africa and Asia, especially, many are reluctant to take sides in what is seen as a regional European conflict.

François Heisbourg, a French analyst on defense and security questions at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said Zelenskyy’s European trip was part “weapons shopping tour, that’s clear enough, and it seems to be working very well.”

“But the other aspect, of course, is what you would call shaping the political battlefield,” he said. “The politics are no less important for Zelenskyy than the purely military stuff.”

Associated Press writers John Leicester in Paris, Kirsten Grieshaber in Berlin, Nicole Winfield in Rome and Danica Kirka in London contributed to this report.

Ukraine's Zelenskiy: We must speed up deliveries of weaponry for frontline soldiers

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Zelenskiy calls for operational changes to Ukraine military after sacking commander

President demands ‘new level of medical support for soldiers’ as questions mount over speed of counteroffensive against Russia

Volodymyr Zelenskiy has demanded rapid changes in the operations of Ukraine’s military and announced the dismissal of the commander of its medical forces.

The Ukrainian president’s move was announced on Sunday as he met defence minister, Rustem Umerov, and coincided with debate over the conduct of the 20-month-old war against Russia , with questions over how quickly a counteroffensive in the east and south is proceeding.

“In today’s meeting with defence minister Umerov, priorities were set,” Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address. “There is little time left to wait for results. Quick action is needed for forthcoming changes.”

Zelenskiy said he had replaced Maj Gen Tetiana Ostashchenko as commander of the medical forces.

“The task is clear, as has been repeatedly stressed in society, particularly among combat medics, we need a fundamentally new level of medical support for our soldiers,” he said.

This, he said, included a range of issues – better tourniquets, digitalisation and better communication.

Umerov acknowledged the change on the Telegram messaging app and set as top priorities digitalisation, “tactical medicine” and rotation of service personnel.

Ukraine’s military reports on what it describes as advances in recapturing occupied areas in the east and south and last week acknowledged that troops had taken control of areas on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in southern Kherson region.

Ukrainian commander in chief, Gen Valery Zaluzhny, in an essay published this month, said the war was entering a new stage of attrition and Ukraine needed more sophisticated technology to counter the Russian military.

While repeatedly saying advances will take time, Zelenskiy has denied the war is headed into a stalemate and has called on Kyiv’s western partners, mainly the United States, to maintain levels of military support.

Ostashchenko was replaced by Maj Gen Anatoliy Kazmirchuk, head of a military clinic in Kyiv.

Her dismissal came a week after a Ukrainian news outlet suggested her removal, as well as that of others, was imminent after consultations with paramedics and other officials responsible for providing support to the military.

Meanwhile on Sunday, air defence units in Moscow intercepted a drone targeting the city, mayor Sergei Sobyanin said.

Sobyanin, writing on the Telegram messaging app, said units in the Elektrostal district in the capital’s east had intercepted the drone.

According to preliminary information, falling debris resulting from the operation had caused no casualties or damage, Sobyanin said.

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 4, 2023

Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, and Frederick W. Kagan

July 4, 2023, 8:35pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cutoff for this product was 2pm ET on July 4. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the July 5 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Ukrainian forces appear to be focusing on creating an asymmetrical attrition gradient that conserves Ukrainian manpower at the cost of a slower rate of territorial gains, while gradually wearing down Russian manpower and equipment. Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov reported on July 4 that Ukrainian forces are performing their main task of destroying Russian manpower, equipment, fuel depots, artillery, and air defenses and that a “war of destruction is equal to a war of kilometers.”[1] Danilov’s assessment underlines the prioritization of Ukraine’s ongoing campaign to attrit Russian manpower and assets over attempting to conduct massive sweeping mechanized maneuvers to regain large swaths of territory rapidly. NATO Military Committee Chair Admiral Bob Bauer reported on July 3 that Ukrainian forces are correct to proceed cautiously and avoid high casualties in the counteroffensive and acknowledged that the counteroffensive is difficult due to landmines and other obstacles up to 30km deep into Russian-occupied territory.[2] Bauer stated that Ukrainian forces should not face criticism or pressure for moving slowly.

Ukrainian forces have liberated territory in multiple areas of the front since the start of the counteroffensive in early June. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported on July 3 that Ukrainian forces have liberated a total of 37.4 square kilometers in eastern and southern Ukraine in the past week.[3] Ukrainian forces are continuing to make steady, gradual advances.

The current pace of Ukrainian operations is not indicative of a stalemate or evidence that Ukraine cannot retake large areas. Ukrainian forces conducted slow and gradual interdiction campaigns against Russian concentration areas in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast and limited ground attacks on the west (right) bank between August and November of 2022, before finally forcing the Russian withdrawal from the right bank in mid-November.[4] The situation in southern Ukraine is different, of course, because there is no natural bottleneck of the sort created by Russian reliance on the two bridges over the Dnipro. The Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kherson nevertheless alternated phases of relatively rapid advance with long periods of preparation, combat focused on attritting Russian forces, and limited gains that ultimately made Russian positions on the west bank of the river untenable.  By contrast, the Russian winter-spring offensive culminated in just over one month without making significant gains along the Luhansk-Kharkiv Oblast border.[5]  The current Ukrainian counter-offensive is less dramatic and rapid than the one that liberated much of Kharkiv Oblast, more successful than the failed Russian winter offensive, and generally most like the slower but ultimately successful Kherson counteroffensive in its pace and initial progress.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least four sectors of the front and advanced on July 4. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian ground attacks in the Lyman direction.[6] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continue counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut area, in the western Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[7] Ukrainian military officials stated that Ukrainian forces have made some unspecified advances on Bakhmut’s northern and southern flanks, and a prominent Russian milblogger also claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced north of Bakhmut.[8] Ukrainian Tavrisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Valery Shershen stated that Ukrainian forces advanced up to two kilometers in the western Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and a Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces reached Pryyutne, 15 kilometers southwest of Velyka Novosilka in western Donetsk Oblast.[9] Geolocated footage confirms that Ukrainian forces made additional advances south of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[10]

Russian and Ukrainian officials escalated their rhetoric surrounding the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on July 4, but Russia is likely focused on accusing Ukraine of irresponsible actions around the ZNPP including setting conditions for a possible false flag attack . Russia remains unlikely to generate a radiological incident at the ZNPP at this time. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on July 4 that Ukrainian officials have begun preparations for a potential Russian provocation at the ZNPP “in the near future” and warned that Russian forces placed objects “resembling explosive devices” on the outer roofs of the ZNPP’s third and fourth reactors in order to blame damage to these areas on Ukrainian shelling.[11] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky echoed this statement in his nightly address on July 4, and other Ukrainian military sources warned of possible Russian provocations at the plant.[12] As ISW has previously reported, it is unlikely that limited Russian sabotage at the ZNPP that Russia could hope to blame on Ukraine would be able to generate a massive radiological incident, as the ZNPP’s reactors were constructed to withstand considerable damage.[13] Ukrainian military sources reiterated this assessment and noted that even if the purported explosive devices detonate, the damage would not harm the reactor but would rather create the false impression that Ukrainian forces had shelled the reactors.[14] Advisor to the head of Russian nuclear energy operator Rosenergoatom, Renat Karchaa, also claimed on July 4 that Ukraine is planning to strike the ZNPP overnight on July 4-5.[15] ISW has previously assessed that such provocative Russian statements, and even the possibility of a tangible provocation at the plant, are likely part of a Russian wider information operation meant to accuse Ukraine of irresponsibility at the ZNPP ahead of the upcoming NATO summit and dissuade Ukrainian forces from conducting counteroffensive operations against occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.[16]

The reported reorganization of Russian internal security organs suggests that the Kremlin has not yet concluded that it has effectively neutralized the threats of future armed rebellions following the Wagner Group’s June 23-24 rebellion. Russian outlet Vedomosti reported on July 3, citing internal law enforcement sources, that Russian law enforcement authorities are considering reassigning the “Grom” special units of the Russian Federal Drug Control Service (part of the Ministry of Internal Affairs) to Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard).[17] Vedomosti noted that this reported change follows Russian President Vladimir Putin’s meeting with heads of various Russian law enforcement agencies on June 26 in the wake of the Wagner armed rebellion.[18] Several Russian sources spoke out against the reported transfer of ”Grom” to Rosgvardia, citing overall poorer equipment, training, and leadership quality.[19] Vedomosti claimed that Alexander Khinstein, former advisor to Rosgvardia Head Viktor Zolotov, warned that the assignment of ”Grom” units to Rosgvardia would be a ”dangerous experiment.”[20] The alleged restructuring of Russia’s internal security forces suggests that the Kremlin is working to build an effective anti-rebellion force following Wagner’s armed rebellion. The fact that these purported changes are happening following the rebellion indicates that the Kremlin was correctly dissatisfied with the performance of security forces, which failed to stop or even contest Wagner’s march on Moscow, and suggests that the Kremlin has not ruled out the risk of future such rebellions.

Russian authorities are absolving Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin of financial responsibility for damages caused by the Wagner Group rebellion and reportedly returned significant liquid assets to Prigozhin, possibly as part of the deal negotiated between Putin, Prigozhin, and Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko. The Rostov-on-Don administration claimed that the total damages from Prigozhin’s rebellion amounted to 92.5 million rubles (roughly $1 million), and that the administration will not recover damages from Prigozhin or the Wagner Group.[21] St. Petersburg news outlet Fontanka claimed, citing internal sources, that Russian authorities returned over 10 billion rubles (roughly $111 million) in cash, five gold bars, and hundreds of thousands of US dollars in cash to Prigozhin on July 2 that authorities had seized from Prigozhin-affiliated facilities in St. Petersburg on June 24.[22] Fontanka claimed that authorities only reversed their decision to hold onto Prigozhin‘s liquid assets on July 2 but did not specify a reason for the reversal. The legal basis that Russian authorities would have had for seizing Prigozhin’s assets remains unclear in any case, as Russian authorities dropped criminal charges against Prigozhin for the rebellion.[23] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that part of Prigozhin’s liquid assets were supposed to be compensation to the families of Russian pilots whom Wagner forces killed during the rebellion, but it is now uncertain whether Wagner will make those payments.[24] The milblogger assessed that Wagner will likely use at least part of the returned assets to support transferring Wagner Group personnel to Belarus.

The official Chechen response to an attack against a Russian opposition journalist in Chechnya may impact Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s standing in the Russian ultranationalist information space. Russian opposition outlet Novaya Gazeta reported on July 4 that unspecified, masked actors in Grozny, Chechnya intercepted a car containing one of its journalists, Yelena Milashina, severely assaulted Milashina, destroyed her equipment and documents, and warned Milashina against writing “anything.”[25] Milashina traveled to Chechnya in order to cover the trial of Zarema Musayeva, the mother of an exiled Chechen opposition activist, and the attackers also assaulted Musayeva’s lawyer, Alexander Nemov, who was in the car with Milashina. Chechen courts sentenced Musayeva to five and a half years in prison on July 5 for alleged fraud and attacking Chechen authorities, but some Russian opposition voices claimed that Chechen authorities prosecuted Musayeva due to her son‘s activism.[26] Prominent Russian ultranationalist voices seized on Milashina’s attack despite its lack of relevance to the war in Ukraine likely out of concern for broader press censorship.[27] The voices condemned attacks against journalists – including Milashina – as unacceptable even though they disagree with Milashina.[28] The Russian Union of Journalists and the Russian Human Rights Council both issued statements of condemnation and opened investigations into the attack.[29]

Kadyrov’s prominence in the broader Russian information space will likely force Kadyrov to choose between preserving his regime and his support in the ultranationalist information space, however. Kadyrov’s response was a brief acknowledgment that the relevant Chechen authorities are investigating the ”incident” - a response inconsistent in tone and content with Kadyrov’s usual flamboyant, long-winded messaging.[30] Kadyrov previously condemned Milashina as a ”terrorist” and demanded her detention, which is largely consistent with his overall effort to retain his authoritarian rule in Chechnya.[31] If Kadyrov supports the investigation into Milashina’s attack, he risks undermining his domestic regime and crackdowns against Chechen opposition voices. But if Kadyrov refuses to support the investigation, then he risks undermining his standing within an information space that is hypersensitive to the prospect of increased censorship. Kadyrov already struggles to balance these dual aims in his force arrayment in Ukraine; Kadyrov portrays Akhmat forces as capable fighters against Ukraine but has simultaneously largely avoided committing them intensive and attritional combat, and some Russian milbloggers have complained that Chechen forces are distracted posing online while other Russian forces actually fight.[32]  Chechen forces notably failed to engage Prigozhin’s rebels despite ostentatiously mobilizing and moving ostensibly to fight them, although Putin might have directed Kadyrov to avoid combat with Wagner forces.[33]

Russia is reportedly forming a new combined arms army as part of the Northern Fleet, likely in order to posture its preparedness against NATO. Russian news outlet Izvestia reported that Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) sources claimed that the existing 14th Army Corps of the Northern Fleet will be reformed into the new combined arms army with motorized rifle brigades, divisions, and regiments subordinate to it.[34] Izvestia suggested that the 14th Army Corps‘ 200th and 80th Brigades will be reorganized into a division under the new combined arms army.[35] Russian army corps before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine existed only within fleets and largely performed the same functions as combined arms armies. The reported decision to form a new combined arms army is thus likely posturing ahead of the NATO summit on July 11-12 intended to show Russia’s military response to the accession of Finland and possibly Sweden to the alliance. The promotion of the 14th Army Corps to a combined arms army level will not by itself increase Russian combat capacity, and it is unclear where the Russian military leadership could find the personnel and equipment that would be needed for the new organization to generate a material difference.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a drone attack on Moscow Oblast and Novaya Moskva on July 4. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian air defenses shot down and electronic warfare suppressed five of five Ukrainian drones.[36] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian air defenses destroyed two drones near Valuevo, electronic warfare suppressed one in the Odinstovo Raion, one drone fell near Krivosheino, and one flew toward a military unit in Kubinka - likely the Russian airbase there.[37] One Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces may have intended to strike Vnukovo Airport, and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin announced that Russian authorities temporarily redirected some flights from Vnukovo Airport in response to the drones.[38] Another milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces may have conducted the drone attack in retaliation for an alleged Russian strike on a Ukrainian Security Services (SBU) building in Sumy Oblast.[39]

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces appear to be focusing on creating an asymmetrical attrition gradient that conserves Ukrainian manpower at the cost of a slower rate of territorial gains, while gradually wearing down Russian manpower and equipment. The current pace of Ukrainian operations is not indicative of a stalemate or evidence that Ukraine cannot retake large areas.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least four sectors of the front and advanced on July 4.
• Russian and Ukrainian officials escalated their rhetoric surrounding the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) on July 5, but Russia is likely focused on accusing Ukraine of irresponsible actions around the ZNPP including setting conditions for a possible false flag attack. Russia remains unlikely to generate a radiological incident at the ZNPP at this time.
• The reported reorganization of Russian internal security organs suggests that the Kremlin has not yet concluded that it has effectively neutralized the threats of future armed rebellions following the Wagner Group’s June 23-24 rebellion.
• Russian authorities are absolving Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin of financial responsibility for damages caused by the Wagner Group rebellion and reportedly returned significant liquid assets to Prigozhin, possibly as part of the deal negotiated between Putin, Prigozhin, and Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko.
• The official Chechen response to an attack against a Russian opposition journalist in Chechnya may impact Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov’s standing in the Russian ultranationalist information space.
• Kadyrov’s prominence in the broader Russian information space will likely force Kadyrov to choose between preserving his regime and his support in the ultranationalist information space, however.
• Russia is reportedly forming a new combined arms army as part of the Northern Fleet, likely in order to posture its preparedness against NATO.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a drone attack on Moscow Oblast and Novaya Moskva on July 4.
• Russian conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and south of Kreminna.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces escalated ground attacks in the Bakhmut area.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on July 4.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russia continues efforts to mobilize its defense industrial base (DIB).

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports. 

• Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
• Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
• Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
• Activities in Russian-occupied areas

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast) 

The Ukrainian General Staff reported on July 4 that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups made unsuccessful attempts to cross the northern international border between Ukraine and Russia in unspecified areas in the Siversk and Slobozhansk directions.[40]

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and south of Kreminna on July 4. Geolocated footage published on July 4 shows that Russian forces made limited advances east of Nevske (18km northwest of Kreminna).[41]  The Ukrainian General Staff reported that  Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Novoselivske (15km northwest of Svatove), Novovodyane (16km southwest of Svatove), Dibrova (7km southwest of Kreminna), the Serebrianske forest area (10km south of Kreminna), and Vesele (30km south of Kreminna).[42] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian and Ukrainian forces attempted to advance in the Svatove direction and that Russian forces conducted attacks near Kuzemivka (14km northwest of Svatove).[43] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty reported on June 3 that Russian forces have about 180,000 troops in the area of responsibility of the Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces, 120,000 of which are operating in the Kupyansk-Lyman direction, including Airborne (VDV) forces, mechanized units, BARS (Russian Combat Reserve) units, Territorial Defense units, and Storm-Z assault units.[44] Footage published on July 4 purportedly shows the 123rd Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Luhansk People’s Republic Army Corps) operating near Spirne (25km south of Kreminna).[45]

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on July 4. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attack near Novoselivske, Novovodyane, and Yampolivka (16km west of Kreminna).[46] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks from Torske (16km west of Kreminna) and that artillery and UAV units of the Russian 120th Guards Artillery Brigade (41st Combined Arms Army, Central Military District) repelled Ukrainian attacks near Dibrova.[47] 

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian and Ukrainian forces escalated ground attacks in the Bakhmut area on July 4. Ukranian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that the situation in Bakhmut has escalated, and that Russian and Ukrainian forces are dueling for the initiative and control of terrain.[48] Malyar also stated that Ukrainian forces are advancing on the southern flank of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) and that fighting continues on Klishchiivka’s northern flank.[49] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled nine Russian attacks near Hryhorivka (8km northwest of Bakhmut), Bohdanivka (5km northwest of Bakhmut), Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut), west of Yahidne (2km north of Bakhmut), and southeast of Bila Hora (15km southwest of Bakhmut).[50] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations north and south of Bakhmut, entrenching themselves in new positions.[51] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced near Dubovo-Vasylivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut).[52] A Russian milblogger also claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations near Klishchiivka, Ozarianivka (16km southwest of Bakhmut), and Kurdiumivka (12km southwest of Bakhmut).[53] The milblogger claimed that Russian forces held their positions and counterattacked from Berkhivka (6km north of Bakhmut) and along the M-03 highway in the direction of Minkivka (13km northwest of Bakhmut).[54] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that units of the Russian Southern Group of Forces repelled 10 Ukrainian attacks near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut), Yahidne, and Klishchivka.[55]

Pervasive issues with Russian combat capabilities likely continue to affect the ability of Russian forces to defend against Ukrainian counterattacks in the Bakhmut area. Former Russian officer and prominent critical milblogger Igor Girkin claimed that Ukrainian forces are advancing north of Bakhmut where understaffed units of the Russian 3rd Army Corps (Western Military District) have been deployed.[56] ISW previously reported the formation and failure of the 3rd Army Corps, a new formation created in 2022 that was decimated during its first deployment to Kharkiv Oblast in September 2022 and again in its subsequent deployments to the Bakhmut area.[57] ISW previously assessed that issues with the ad hoc commitment of various depleted force groupings to the Bakhmut axis, alongside apparent command and control failures, were likely preventing Russian forces in the area from conducting sound defensive operations and would likely offer Ukrainian forces opportunities to exploit with limited counterattacks.[58]

Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on July 4. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces defended against Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka and repelled 15 Russian ground attacks near Marinka (on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City).[59] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations in the Avdiivka direction.[60] Another milblogger claimed that Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive operations in Marinka and on the southwestern approach to Avdiivka.[61]

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on July 4. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Rivnopil, 10km southwest of Velyka Novosilka along the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border.[62] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks in the Vuhledar area east of Velyka Novosilka and south of Velyka Novosilka near Urozhaine.[63] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces reached the borders of Pryyutne, 15km southwest of Velyka Novosilka in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.[64] Ukrainian Tavrisk Direction Spokesperson Valeriy Shershen noted on July 4 that Ukrainian forces have advanced up to 2km into Russian defenses in an unspecified area of the Berdyansk (western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia oblasts) direction.[65]

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast on July 4. Geolocated footage posted on July 4 shows elements of the 810 th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet) and 58th Combined Arms Army (Southern Military District) shelling Ukrainian positions south of Orikhiv, indicating that Ukrainian forces have advanced to within 2km north of Robotyne.[66] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continued attacks towards Robotyne but that elements of the 70th Motorized Rifle Regiment (42nd Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) repelled Ukrainian attacks west of Robotyne.[67] Russian milbloggers additionally claimed that several small Ukrainian assault groups launched an attack southwest of Orikhiv towards the Pyatykhatyky-Zherebryanky line (about 25km southwest of Orikhiv) and reported that elements of the Crimea and Sudoplatov volunteer battalions and the 429th Motorized Rifle Regiment (19th Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) are defending in this area.[68]

Ukrainian forces conducted a strike in the Russian rear of occupied Zaporizhia Oblast on July 4. Geolocated footage posted on July 4 shows the aftermath of a reported Ukrainian Storm Shadow missile strike on an unspecified Russian warehouse facility in Yakymivka, about 23km southwest of Melitopol along the T2209 Melitopol-Chonhar highway.[69] Russian sources additionally claimed that Ukrainian forces struck Vasylivka (35km north of Melitopol along the E105 highway).[70]

Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian forces are active near the Antonivsky Bridge on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast despite the Russian MoD’s efforts to claim that Russian forces have full control of this area.[71] One Russian milblogger claimed that there are heavy battles ongoing near the Antonivsky Bridge, and another warned that Ukrainian troops are regrouping and replenishing units to prepare for further attacks across the Dnipro River.[72] The Russian MoD claimed on July 1 that Russian troops fully restored their positions along the eastern shoreline of the Dnipro River, but milbloggers have continued to warn that Ukrainian forces maintain a presence on the east bank and are preparing for additional attacks.[73] Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk also noted that Russian forces near the Dnipro River are trying to retake positions previously flooded by the explosion of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam.[74]

An influx of Russian tourists to Crimea is generating serious traffic jams along one of Russia’s most important ground lines of communication, prompting Putin and other senior Russian officials to direct state resources to help tourists move closer to a zone of active hostilities. Russian Transport Minister Vitaly Saveliev met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 4 to report on the situation at the entrance to the Kerch Strait Bridge and to ask for increased ferry crossings to reduce traffic jams.[75] Putin called for maximizing the use of ferries to ”normalize” the transport situation across the Kerch Strait and indicated that the Russian MoD should also lend transport assets to the area.[76] A Russian milblogger claimed that the traffic at the entrance of the Kerch Strait Bridge in Krasnodar Krai has increased by 40% since July 1 and is expected to increase further in the coming days as the summer tourist season is in full swing.[77] Another Russian milblogger called on the Black Sea Fleet to provide two large landing ships for the crossing of civilian vehicles to solve traffic issues and emphasized that Russian authorities have seriously underestimated the desire of Russians to continue vacationing in occupied Crimea despite ongoing hostilities.[78] Russian authorities are dealing with pervasive civilian and transport issues to Crimea partially because of their continued refusal to fully mobilize Russian society onto a wartime footing, resulting in the continued promotion of tourism to occupied Crimea despite the fact it is a legitimate rear-area target for continued Ukrainian strikes.

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

Russia continues efforts to mobilize its defense industrial base (DIB). Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, Industry and Trade Minister Denis Manturov, and unspecified other military leaders and DIB representatives discussed the implementation of the Russian state defense order to increase DIB production, but the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) did not provide details on the topics discussed or agreed plans.[79] Yelabuga, Tatarstan regional entity “Alabuga Start” advertised a program for women aged 16 to 22 to develop careers building drones.[80] The program claims to offer benefits including a 52,000 ruble ($577) monthly salary, training, housing, relocation aid, and opportunities for further education. ISW has previously reported that a Russo-Iranian contract is providing for the manufacture of Shahed drones in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone (SEZ).[81]

Russian officials continue to posture Russia as able to generate enough manpower to maintain the war effort in Ukraine. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed that Russian forces have recruited over 185,000 contract and conscripted personnel since January 1, 2023, 109,000 of whom are in reserve.[82] Medvedev claimed that Russian forces recruited 1,400 people per day for contract service in June 2023.

Russia continues efforts to expand international military cooperation. Russian Navy Commander-in-Chief Nikolai Yevmenov and Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu met in Beijing on July 3 and discussed ongoing mutual cooperation and organizing joint military exercises.[83] Russian Deputy Defense Minister Colonel General Alexander Fomin met with Kuwaiti Army Assistant Chief of Staff Brigadier General Fawaz Al-Harbi in Moscow on July 4 and confirmed Russian and Kuwaiti intent to further defense cooperation.[84]

Activities in Russian-occupied areas (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian civilians into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems) 

Russian officials continue to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of providing pediatric healthcare. Russian Commissioner for Children's Rights Maria Lvova-Belova claimed on July 4 that Russian authorities sent 23 disabled children from occupied Donetsk Oblast to a rehabilitation center in Krasnogorsk, Moscow Oblast and 12 children to a rehabilitation center in Elektrostal, Moscow Oblast.[85] Lvova-Belova claimed that Russian authorities plan to send about 370 more children in at least four more trips to rehabilitation centers by the end of 2023.[86] Lvova-Belova did not specify if the children have returned or will return to occupied Donetsk Oblast. ISW has previously reported on Russian authorities using access to pediatric healthcare as a guise to deport children in occupied Ukraine to Russia.[87]

Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks).

ISW will continue to report daily observed Russian and Belarusian military activity in Belarus, as part of ongoing Kremlin efforts to increase their control over Belarus and other Russian actions in Belarus.

Nothing significant to report.

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.

[1] https://twitter.com/OleksiyDanilov/status/1676116133819170817

[2] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-right-be-cautious-with-counter-offensive-top-nato-official-says-2023-07-03/

[3] https://t.me/annamaliar/899

[4] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-30 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-13

[5] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-15-2023 ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-8-2023

[6] https://t.me/mod_russia/28072

[7] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02A52T2ugTVhiavau9ev...

[8] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2023/07/04/syly-oborony-prodovzhuyut-vesty-nastupalni-operacziyi-na-bahmutskomu-melitopolskomu-i-berdyanskomu-napryamkah/; https://t.me/strelkovii/5874 ; https://t.me/annamaliar/903

[9] https://suspilne dot media/521387-na-berdanskomu-napramku-zaporizkoi-oblasti-vijskovi-zsu-prosunulisa-do-dvoh-kilometriv-vpered/;  https://www.facebook.com/PresscentrTavria/videos/932914671129838/

[10] https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1676197514641387521; https://t.me/wargonzo/13655

[11] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02ABo9LEqPDXC5mk6WF1Y8DnZ7p1DBLvQt2gWt1TwufuY7FfCaM7yYvYP6eBhn7uYHl  

[12] https://www.president.gov dot ua/en/news/svit-bachit-sho-yedinim-dzherelom-nebezpeki-dlya-zaporizkoyi-84065; https://t.me/AFUStratCom/18805 ; https://t.me/spravdi/31142

[13] https://isw.pub/UkrWar112122 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar070123 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar062223

[14] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-ukraine-accuse-each-other-pl...

[15] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-ukraine-accuse-each-other-pl...

[16] https://isw.pub/RusCampaignSept22 ;

[17] https://www.vedomosti dot ru/politics/articles/2023/07/04/983567-vedomstva-prorabativayut-vopros-o-perepodchinenii-politseiskogo-spetsnaza-rosgvardii

[18] https://www.vedomosti dot ru/politics/articles/2023/07/04/983567-vedomstva-prorabativayut-vopros-o-perepodchinenii-politseiskogo-spetsnaza-rosgvardii; http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/71530; https://t.me/mod_russia/27870    

[19] https://t.me/dva_majors/20216; https://t.me/dva_majors/20220 ; https://t.me/notes_veterans/10678 ; https://t.me/rosich_ru/44861

[20] https://www.vedomosti dot ru/politics/articles/2023/07/04/983567-vedomstva-prorabativayut-vopros-o-perepodchinenii-politseiskogo-spetsnaza-rosgvardii

[21] https://www.kavkazr dot com/a/administratsiya-rostova-ne-budet-trebovatj-vozmescheniya-uscherba-ot-prigozhina-posle-myatezha-v-gorode/32488862.html; https://meduza dot io/news/2023/07/03/vlasti-rostova-na-donu-otsenili-pochti-v-sto-millionov-rubley-uscherb-gorodu-ot-myatezha-chvk-vagnera; https://rtvi dot com/news/glava-rostova-na-donu-rasskazal-o-summe-ushherba-ot-myatezha-chvk-vagner/

[22] https://www.fontanka dot ru/2023/07/04/72460373/

[23] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[24] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/91216

[25] https://t.me/novaya_pishet/41030 ; https://meduza dot io/news/2023/07/04/v-chechne-napali-na-zhurnalistku-novoy-gazety-elenu-milashinu-i-advokata-aleksandra-nemova-ih-zhestko-izbili-zhurnalistke-slomali-paltsy

[26] https://www.themoscowtimes dot com/2023/07/04/chechen-court-sentences-mother-of-prominent-activist-to-55-years-in-prison-a81728

[27] https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/18182187; https://t.me/sashakots/40758; https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/14692

[28] https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/18182187; https://t.me/sashakots/40758 ; https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/14692

[29] https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/18182187

[30] https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/3743;

[31] https://meduza dot io/news/2022/02/03/obozrevatel-novoy-gazety-elena-milashina-uedet-iz-rossii-posle-ugroz-kadyrova; https://meduza dot io/news/2023/07/04/razberemsya-ramzan-kadyrov-o-napadenii-na-elenu-milashinu-i-aleksandra-nemova; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-10 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%20April%2016.pdf

[32] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-5-2023 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-31-2023 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-2-2023 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-24-2023

[33] https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%2C%20May%2031%2C%202023%20PDF.pdf ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[34] https://iz dot ru/1538203/roman-kretcul-aleksei-ramm/poliarnyi-okrug-v-sostave-severnogo-flota-sozdadut-obshchevoiskovuiu-armiiu

[35] https://iz dot ru/1538203/roman-kretcul-aleksei-ramm/poliarnyi-okrug-v-sostave-severnogo-flota-sozdadut-obshchevoiskovuiu-armiiu

[36] https://t.me/mod_russia/28057 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/28057; https://t.me/severrealii/18203 ; https://t.me/shot_shot/53667 ; https://t.me/shot_shot/53668 ; https://t.me/svobodnieslova/2376 ; https://t.me/bazabazon/19166 ; https://t.me/sotaproject/62267; https://t.me/vrogov/10743; https://t.me/istories_media/2957; https://t.me/astrapress/31717; https://t.me/astrapress/31721; https://t.me/astrapress/31723; https://t.me/astrapress/31724 ; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/48938 ; https://t.me/milinfolive/103099 ; https://t.me/milinfolive/103100 ; https://t.me/milinfolive/103102 ; https://t.me/milinfolive/103107

[37] https://t.me/rybar/49303; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/48650; https://t.me/russkiy_opolchenec/37131 ; https://gfsis.org.ge/maps/russian-military-forces

[38] https://t.me/rybar/49303; https://t.me/mos_sobyanin/5854

[39] https://t.me/milinfolive/103104

[40] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02A52T2ugTVhiavau9ev...

[41] https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1676238337202331648?s=20

[42] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02A52T2ugTVhiavau9ev...

[43] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/91146

[44] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2023/07/03/vorog-namagayetsya-nastupaty-na-lymano-kupyanskomu-napryamku-sergij-cherevatyj/

[45] https://t.me/sons_fatherland/10707

[46] https://t.me/mod_russia/28072

[47] https://t.me/wargonzo/13644 ; https://t.me/rybar/49287; https://t.me/kremlinprachka/24720

[48] https://t.me/annamaliar/903

[49] https://t.me/annamaliar/903

[50] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02pkdwwHKJ5eZcJc9FQ6u2pJAfj4vkxsmmVQTVdqqNbJFGN4KTPEKy7wywg3ATtH9ol

[51] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02A52T2ugTVhiavau9evCzYCUKw7ZJdEccNPotT5BoeWZaKcopvwQGEWDWtirJjwTfl

[52] https://t.me/grey_zone/19409 ; https://t.me/strelkovii/5874  

[53] https://t.me/wargonzo/13644  

[54] https://t.me/wargonzo/13644  

[55] https://t.me/mod_russia/28072

[56] https://t.me/strelkovii/5874 

[57] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...

[58] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-10-2023

[59] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02A52T2ugTVhiavau9evCzYCUKw7ZJdEccNPotT5BoeWZaKcopvwQGEWDWtirJjwTfl  ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02pkdwwHKJ5eZcJc9FQ6u2pJAfj4vkxsmmVQTVdqqNbJFGN4KTPEKy7wywg3ATtH9ol ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02A52T2ugTVhiavau9evCzYCUKw7ZJdEccNPotT5BoeWZaKcopvwQGEWDWtirJjwTfl   

[60] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/91146

[61] https://t.me/wargonzo/13644

[62] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02pkdwwHKJ5eZcJc9FQ6u2pJAfj4vkxsmmVQTVdqqNbJFGN4KTPEKy7wywg3ATtH9ol

[63] https://t.me/mod_russia/28072; https://t.me/mod_russia/28066

[64] https://t.me/wargonzo/13644

[65] https://suspilne dot media/521387-na-berdanskomu-napramku-zaporizkoi-oblasti-vijskovi-zsu-prosunulisa-do-dvoh-kilometriv-vpered/ ;  https://www.facebook.com/PresscentrTavria/videos/932914671129838/

[66] https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1676197514641387521 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/13655

[67] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/48680 ; https://t.me/berloga_life/13918; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/48664  

[68] https://t.me/rybar/49306; https://t.me/batalyon15/2205; https://t.me/batalyon15/2202; https://t.me/batalyon15/2200; https://t.me/negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z/8536; https://t.me/voin_dv/3520; https://t.me/rusich_army/9742; https://t.me/rusich_army/9741; https://t.me/rusich_army/9739; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/48667  

[69] https://t.me/vrogov/10736 ; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1676220226902294528?s=20; https://t.me/rybar/49304

[70] https://t.me/vrogov/10733 ; https://t.me/vrogov/10734; https://t.me/rybar/49304

[71] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...

[72] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/91146; https://t.me/readovkanews/61932; https://t.me/dva_majors/20233 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/20234 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/20196 ; https://t.me/russkiy_opolchenec/37139   

[73] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-1-2023 ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-2-2023 ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...

[74] https://suspilne dot media/521107-v-lavah-armii-rf-pevna-panika-tomu-voni-tak-golosno-kricat-pro-antonivskij-mist-gumenuk-pro-situaciu-na-hersonsini/

[75] https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/18188277

[76] https://tass dot ru/obschestvo/18188277

[77] https://t.me/southtower/8821  

[78] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/91215

[79] https://t.me/mod_russia/28067 

[80] https://t.me/rusich_army/9749; https://t.me/AlabugaService/57

[81] https://isw.pub/UkrWar070323

[82] https://tass dot ru/armiya-i-opk/18189843 ; https://ria dot ru/20230704/kontraktniki-1882224486.html

[83] http://www.mod.gov dot cn/gfbw/qwfb/16234721.html; https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-03/china-says-it-wants-m...

[84] https://t.me/mod_russia/28080

[85] https://t.me/malvovabelova/1675

[86] https://t.me/malvovabelova/1675

[87] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-30-2023 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-11-2023

Putin taunts the West with 'first ever' visit to remote ice-covered 'frontier region' just 55 miles from the US - as Zelensky tries to drum up war support in Lithuania

• Chukotka is Russia's easternmost region, sharing a maritime border with Alaska

President Vladimir Putin  has arrived for his first-ever presidential visit to Chukotka in Russia 's Far East - just 55 miles from the US state of Alaska . 

Putin arrived in Anadyr, the local capital of the Chukotka region this morning after flying from Moscow some nine time zones away. 

Chukotka is the easternmost region of Russia, with a maritime border on the Bering Strait with Alaska.

The Russian president was met in Anadyr by a motorcade and was whisked away in a limousine amid frigid temperatures of -28C. 

It's the closest he has come to US soil since he met with President  Barack Obama in New York City in 2015.

Chukotka is so close to Alaska that Roman Abramovich - the ex-Chelsea FC owner - was reported to fly to Anchorage in Alaska for lunch when he was the governor of the region from 2001 - 2008.

Putin's visit comes at a time when US-Russian relations are at their lowest ebb in decades amid the war in Ukraine and a growing East-West divide. 

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky today landed in Lithuania as part of an unannounced trip to the Baltic states to drum up more support for the conflict. 

Global war for control of the ARCTIC: Climate change is unlocking untapped natural resources, new trade routes... and a new international conflict that RUSSIA is already winning  

The three Baltic states - all former Soviet republics which are now EU and NATO members - are among Ukraine's staunchest allies.

'Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are our reliable friends and principled partners. Today, I arrived in Vilnius before going to Tallinn and Riga,' Zelensky said on social media platform X, formerly Twitter.

'Security, EU and NATO integration, cooperation on electronic warfare and drones, and further coordination of European support are all on the agenda,' he said.

The Baltic tour marks Zelensky's first official trip abroad this year.

In Lithuania, a key donor to Ukraine, Zelensky said he will hold talks with the president, prime minister and the speaker of parliament, and meet with the Ukrainian community.

The visit comes as other Kyiv allies waver on fresh aid, nearly two years into Russia's invasion.

Ukraine has come under intense Russian shelling in recent weeks, retaliating with strikes on Russia's border city of Belgorod.

Zelensky has urged allies to keep military support flowing and held in-person talks with officials from the United States, Germany and Norway last month.

But an EU aid package worth 50 billion euros ($55 billion) has been stuck in Brussels following a veto by Hungary, while the US Congress remains divided on sending additional aid to Ukraine.

Following his trip to Chukotka, Putin is expected to visit several regions in the Russian Far East to boost his re-election campaign amid the war with Ukraine, which has seen more than 300,000 Russians killed or maimed.

He is due to stand in March, seeking another six years in the Kremlin.

The only Kremlin leader ever to travel to Chukotka previously was Dmitry Medvedev in 2008.

Putin's trip sees him escape a wave of ugly protests in western Russia over hundreds of thousands of people scraping by in freezing conditions due to breakdowns in communal heating supplies.

In Elektrostal, Moscow region, desperate residents say they have had no communal heating - which Russians routinely expect the state to supply usually through piped hot water - for the entire winter so far.

'We have been without heating since [9 October],' one resident said in a video circulating on Telegram.

'It is impossible to be in our homes… We are freezing! We are freezing! We are freezing!' they said. 

• TP Hồ Chí Minh
• Trở lại Thế giới

Nga đưa Tổng thống Zelensky vào danh sách truy nã

Bộ Nội vụ Nga đưa Tổng thống Ukraine Zelensky vào danh sách truy nã nhưng chưa nêu lý do cụ thể.

"Volodymyr Aleksandrovich Zelensky , sinh ngày 25/1/1978 tại thành phố Krivoy Rog thuộc tỉnh Dnipro của Ukraine, bị truy nã theo điều khoản trong Bộ luật Hình sự", RIA Novosti hôm nay dẫn thông tin từ cơ sở dữ liệu của Bộ Nội vụ Nga, nhưng chưa rõ điều khoản cụ thể là gì.

Hàng loạt quan chức Ukraine cũng xuất hiện trong danh sách truy nã của Bộ Nội vụ Nga, gồm Thư ký Hội đồng Quốc phòng và An ninh Quốc gia Alexander Litvinenko, cựu bộ trưởng tư pháp Pavel Petrenko, cựu giám đốc Cơ quan An ninh Ukraine Valentin Nalyvaichenko, cựu bộ trưởng tài chính Alexander Shlapak và cựu thống đốc Ngân hàng Quốc gia Stepan Kubiv.

Ủy ban Điều tra Nga hồi tháng 1 cáo buộc Shlapak và Kubiv vì cung cấp nguồn lực tài chính cho quân đội Ukraine tiến hành chiến dịch nhằm vào các tỉnh ly khai ở vùng Donbass suốt nhiều năm qua.

Giới chức Nga và Ukraine chưa bình luận về thông tin.

Tổng thống Zelensky họp báo tại Phần Lan hồi tháng 5/2023. Ảnh: Reuters

Bộ Nội vụ Nga giữa năm ngoái cũng phát lệnh truy nã tướng Valery Zaluzhny, khi đó là tư lệnh quân đội Ukraine, và tướng Oleksandr Syrsky, người lúc đó giữ chức tư lệnh lục quân và kế nhiệm tướng Zaluzhny hồi đầu năm nay. Những động thái này được cho là chỉ mang tính biểu tượng, rất ít khả năng gây ra hệ quả pháp lý với các quan chức Ukraine .

"Tôi nghĩ tương lai của Tổng thống Zelensky đã được định đoạt và người dân Ukraine sẽ sớm đặt câu hỏi về tính hợp pháp của ông ấy", phát ngôn viên Điện Kremlin Dmitry Peskov nói hồi tuần trước khi đề cập việc Ukraine chưa tổ chức bầu cử tổng thống như quy định.

Theo hiến pháp Ukraine, nhiệm kỳ 5 năm của Tổng thống Zelensky sẽ kết thúc ngày 20/5 và nước này phải tổ chức bầu cử tổng thống từ trước đó hai tháng. Tuy nhiên, ông Zelensky yêu cầu không tổ chức bầu cử cho tới khi xung đột chấm dứt.

Vũ Anh (Theo TASS )

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Zelensky and Putin Make Dueling Trips to Front Line in Ukraine

The visits by the Ukrainian and Russian leaders came as both sought to display strength and confidence ahead of an anticipated Kyiv counteroffensive.

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By Ivan Nechepurenko ,  Matthew Mpoke Bigg and Victoria Kim

• April 18, 2023

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine visited the embattled eastern town of Avdiivka, his office said on Tuesday, after the Kremlin announced that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had again traveled to occupied areas of Ukraine near the front line, as both leaders sought to display strength and rally their troops.

The split-screen images came ahead of an anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive to take back territory seized by Russian troops. The trips also occurred as the battle for the key eastern city of Bakhmut intensified, with Moscow launching airstrikes and attacking from several directions simultaneously, a Ukrainian general said.

Mr. Putin visited the southern region of Kherson and the eastern Luhansk region, the Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, said. It was the Russian leader’s second trip close to the front line in a month. Military analysts say that Ukraine might target Kherson and Luhansk in its counteroffensive.

Mr. Zelensky announced his visit on Tuesday in a post on the social messaging app Telegram. But it was not immediately clear when Mr. Putin made his trip, though Mr. Peskov and the Kremlin said it was on Monday. The Russian leader appeared in different clothes in two parts of his trip and could be heard in video footage released by Moscow speaking with his commanders about the upcoming Easter, which the Orthodox Church celebrated on Sunday.

His remark, which appeared in a video broadcast by Russian state media, was removed from later versions. Mr. Peskov said that Mr. Putin had meant the Easter season, which lasts several weeks, and insisted that the trip had taken place on Monday.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, denounced Mr. Putin’s trip, saying on Twitter that it was little more than a “special tour” of an area that Russia’s leader had ruined when he ordered the full-scale invasion of its neighbor in February 2022.

During his trip to the town of Avdiivka — which Russian forces have being trying to seize for more than a year, leaving it in ruins and forcing almost all of its residents to flee — Mr. Zelensky sat with troops and wished them a happy Orthodox Easter, his office said.

The Ukrainian leader made two trips in two straight days to the front line in March, in a show of resolve and to thank soldiers on the front line. He made an unannounced visit near the Bakhmut area , and that same month, he visited areas in the Kherson region ravaged by Russia’s campaign to destroy energy infrastructure.

In December, Mr. Zelensky also went to Bakhmut, which has become a potent symbol of Ukrainian resistance in the face of Moscow’s ceaseless assault.

The two visits this week were announced as fighting has intensified, including in Bakhmut, where the Russian Defense Ministry said on Monday that its troops had captured two more areas in the south and northwest of the city, although the claim could not be verified.

“The Bakhmut sector remains the epicenter of the fighting,” the commander of Kyiv’s ground forces, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, said on Tuesday on Telegram.

“Currently, the enemy is increasing the activity of heavy artillery and the number of airstrikes, turning the city into ruins,” General Syrsky said. But Ukrainian forces remain in control, he added.

Fighting also raged in Avdiivka, where Russian attacks have destroyed entire neighborhoods and nearly cut off access to humanitarian aid for its remaining residents. The city once had a population of 30,000, but many have fled. Ukrainian officials estimate about 1,800 residents are refusing to evacuate .

After Mr. Putin’s trip to Kherson, Russian forces a shelled a market in the center of Kherson City, killing one person and wounding at least six others, the head of Mr. Zelensky’s office, Andriy Yermak, wrote on Telegram.

In all, Russian forces had launched 342 shells at the Kherson region in the previous 24 hours, Oleksandr Prokudin, the regional military administration head, wrote on Telegram on Tuesday.

Mr. Putin last visited occupied areas of Ukraine a month ago, traveling to Crimea and the city of Mariupol — a day after an international court issued a warrant for his arrest, accusing him of war crimes .

This time, he appeared to have traveled under a veil of secrecy and without his usual number of staff, which typically includes photographers and video operators. The Kremlin released grainy, shaky video footage of the trip.

Mr. Putin took a military helicopter to Kherson, though it was unclear where exactly he visited. Photographs and video released by Russian state media showed him emerging from a helicopter that had landed in a rural area on the eastern side of the Dnipro River.

Mr. Putin also visited Russian military headquarters in Luhansk, the Kremlin said in a statement . The Russian president was not accompanied by his defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, or by the chief of the general staff of the military, Valery V. Gerasimov, according to footage broadcast by the state media.

In opening remarks, Mr. Putin told military commanders, “It was important for me to listen to your opinion about the current situation, to share information.”

Russia seized Kherson City, the regional capital, in March last year, when its troops advanced north from Crimea and crossed over the Dnipro with almost no opposition. It was the only time since Moscow’s full-scale invasion that it had seized a regional capital.

That success lasted but a few months.

Last summer, the Ukrainian government selected the Kherson region for its first major counteroffensive. Armed with military aid from the United States and other allies, it targeted Russian forces and military infrastructure in the province with rockets and fought intense battles across the province on both sides of the river.

Moscow had stationed tens of thousands of troops in Kherson City, but with key bridges destroyed or impassable , they became exposed. Before a full-scale battle for the city began, Russian commanders ordered a withdrawal to the east river bank in November. Ukrainian forces then entered the city of Kherson and retook much of the Kharkiv region in September.

Having retreated, Russian forces are still pounding Kherson City and surrounding areas held by Ukraine with a daily barrage of rocket fire, killing civilians, damaging towns and villages and making the resumption of normal life virtually impossible .

Ukrainian officials and military experts say Russia has been building up its forces in the Kherson area, laying mines, increasing troop numbers and constructing defensive barriers in anticipation of Ukrainian attacks.

Kyiv has kept the location and timing of any counteroffensive under wraps, but a campaign to retake land in the south could, if successful, mean that Crimea, which Moscow illegally annexed from Ukraine in 2014, becomes divided from the territory that Russia holds in eastern Ukraine.

Ukrainian troops have also been squeezed into defending a section of the western part of Bakhmut as Russian forces have made steady advances on the city in months of bloody fighting.

“This is where the enemy is concentrating most of its efforts and is determined to take control of the city at any cost,” General Syrsky said.

Russia began its assault on Bakhmut last summer, and the battle has led to heavy casualties on both sides, though military experts say Russian losses are significantly higher.

If Russian forces capture all of Bakhmut, it would mark their first seizure of a key city in months.

Britain’s defense secretary, Ben Wallace, on Tuesday expressed confidence in Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive, but signaled that the war would most likely continue into next year.

“I’m optimistic that between this year and next year, I think Ukraine will continue to have the momentum with it and a position of strength,” Mr. Wallace told reporters in Washington. “I also think we should be realistic: There is not going to be a single magic-wand moment when Russia collapses.”

Eric Schmitt , Yousur Al-Hlou and Masha Froliak contributed reporting.

Ivan Nechepurenko has been a Times reporter since 2015, covering politics, economics, sports and culture in Russia and the former Soviet republics. He was raised in St. Petersburg, Russia, and in Piatykhatky, Ukraine. More about Ivan Nechepurenko

Matthew Mpoke Bigg is a correspondent covering international news. He previously worked as a reporter, editor and bureau chief for Reuters and did postings in Nairobi, Abidjan, Atlanta, Jakarta and Accra. More about Matthew Mpoke Bigg

Victoria Kim is a correspondent based in Seoul, focused on international breaking news coverage. More about Victoria Kim

Our Coverage of the War in Ukraine

News and Analysis

President Biden and Ukraine’s allies have invoked a sense of urgency over weapon deliveries. But there are logistical hurdles , and Ukraine has little time to lose.

The United States has accused Russia of using chemical weapons , including poison gas, “as a method of warfare” against Ukrainian forces, in violation of a global ban on the use of such weapons.

Russian troops have captured or entered around a half-dozen villages on Ukraine’s eastern front, highlighting the deteriorating situation in the region  for Ukrainian forces as they wait for long-needed U.S. military aid.

Signs of Trauma: As Ukrainian prisoners of war return with physical and psychological wounds stemming from torture by their Russian captors, they are being sent back to active duty — often without adequate treatment .

Patriotism or Survival: As the war drags on, communities in western Ukraine that were steadfast  in their commitment to the war effort have been shaken by the unending violence on the front line.

Resuming U.S. Military Aid: Weapons from the support package, considered “a lifeline” for Ukraine’s military , could be arriving on the battlefield within days . But experts say it could take weeks before there is a direct impact on the war . What would $60 billion buy ?

How We Verify Our Reporting

Our team of visual journalists analyzes satellite images, photographs , videos and radio transmissions  to independently confirm troop movements and other details.

We monitor and authenticate reports on social media, corroborating these with eyewitness accounts and interviews. Read more about our reporting efforts .

David Ignatius on his new spy novel, recent Ukraine trip and Mideast insights

Register for the program here.

David Ignatius, the foreign affairs columnist for The Washington Post, explores space warfare, geopolitics and espionage in his new spy novel, “Phantom Orbit.” On Tuesday, May 7 at 2:00 p.m. ET, Ignatius joins The Post’s national security reporter Shane Harris to discuss his timely book, his recent interview with Ukrainian President Zelensky and insights about the Israel-Gaza war .

David Ignatius

Author, “Phantom Orbit”

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US buys 81 Soviet-era combat aircraft from Russia's ally costing on average less than $20,000 each, report says

• The US has purchased 81 Soviet-era combat aircraft from Kazakhstan, a report from the Kyiv Post says.
• Kazakhstan, a historic ally of Russia, is engaging more with Western nations.
• The planes could be used for spare parts or as decoys in conflict regions, the Kyiv Post reported.

The US has acquired 81 obsolete Soviet-era combat aircraft from Kazakhstan, a report from the Kyiv Post says.

Kazakhstan, which is upgrading its air fleet, auctioned off 117 Soviet-era fighter and bomber aircraft, including MiG-31 interceptors, MiG-27 fighter bombers, MiG-29 fighters, and Su-24 bombers from the 1970s and 1980s.

The Kyiv Post reported that the declared sale value was one billion Kazakhstani tenge, or $2.26 million, equalling an average value for each plane of $19,300.

The outlet cited reports from the Ukrainian Telegram channel Insider UA and the Russian news site Reporter saying the US purchased 81 of the aged, unusable warplanes.

The Kyiv Post reported that the motive behind the US purchase remained undisclosed but that the aircraft could be used in Ukraine, where similar aircraft are in service.

The Russian site Reporter said the sale was made through offshore companies.

But Kazspetsexport, Kazakhstan's state-owned weapons importer and exporter, denied selling military airplanes to Ukraine in a statement , saying that foreign companies were not allowed to bid.

Related stories

The Pentagon didn't immediately respond to a request for comment from Business Insider.

Given Ukraine's continued reliance on Soviet-era weapons , the aircraft could either serve as a source of spare parts or be strategically deployed as decoys at airfields, the Kyiv Post reported.

The Mikoyan MiG-31 is a supersonic interceptor that was designed to defend Soviet airspace, according to Airforce Technology . It played a critical role during the Cold War.

Derived from the MiG-23, the MiG-27 was a ground-attack aircraft and saw action in conflicts such as the Soviet-Afghan War. The MiG-29 excelled in air-to-air combat. It was widely exported and remains in service with some air forces.

Despite its age, the Su-24 — an all-weather tactical bomber — remains in service with several air forces, including the Russian Aerospace Forces and Ukrainian Air Force.

Kazakhstan, formerly part of the Soviet Union, has maintained close ties to Russia and historically was one of its strongest allies. But the relationship has shifted since Russia invaded Ukraine, with Kazakhstan aligning itself more with the West, drawing the fury of some in Russia.

The Kyiv Post reported that the Central Asian country's efforts to upgrade its military capabilities seemed to coincide with its increasing engagement with Western nations, signaling a shift away from historical ties with Moscow.

Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, visited Kazakhstan in February 2023, where he said that the US strongly supported "its independence, its territorial integrity," according to Agence France-Presse .

Some of Russia's outspoken propagandists have suggested that Russia should look to Kazakhstan following its invasion of Ukraine.

One Russian TV commentator, Vladimir Solovyov , said his country "must pay attention to the fact that Kazakhstan is the next problem because the same Nazi processes can start there as in Ukraine."

Agreements on trade, education, environment, and mineral supplies reflect the deepening ties between Kazakhstan and Western nations as it navigates geopolitical challenges posed by neighboring countries such as Russia, China, Afghanistan, and Iran.

Correction: April 28, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated the currency conversion rate of the Kazakhstani tenge to the dollar. One billion tenge is worth $2.26 million, not $1.5 million.

Watch: Russia is buying back weapons it sold to other countries as its arsenal runs low

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En direct, guerre en Ukraine : la Russie a lancé plus de 380 attaques contre des villes ukrainiennes cette semaine, affirme Volodymyr Zelensky

Selon le président ukrainien, les oblasts de Kharkiv, Tchernihiv, Soumy, Donetsk, Zaporijia, Mykolaïv, Kherson et Odessa ont été touchés.

• Le point sur la situation le 3 mai à 16 heures
• Des tirs de l’armée russe ont coûté la vie vendredi à trois habitants de l’oblast de Donetsk , rapporte le bureau du procureur général d’Ukraine. Deux personnes ont été tuées à Kourakhove ( 📍 ) et une autre a trouvé la mort à Tchassiv Yar ( 📍 ), précise-t-il sur  Telegram .
• L’armée ukrainienne peut utiliser les armes que le Royaume-Uni lui fournit pour atteindre des cibles en territoire russe , estime le ministre des affaires étrangères britannique, David Cameron, dans un  entretien  accordé jeudi à l’agence Reuters, au cours de sa visite à Kiev.
• Le Kremlin a jugé, vendredi, « très dangereux » les propos du président français, Emmanuel Macron , au sujet d’un éventuel déploiement de troupes au sol en Ukraine, une position controversée qu’il a réaffirmée dans un  entretien  publié la veille par  The Economist .
• « L’échec militaire de la Russie est déjà là. Nous estimons à 500 000 les pertes militaires russes dont 150 000 morts » , déclare le ministre des affaires étrangères français , Stéphane Séjourné, dans un  entretien  accordé à l’édition européenne du journal russe indépendant  Novaya Gazeta .
• Plusieurs institutions tchèques ont été les cibles de cyberattaques orchestrées par un groupe lié aux services de renseignement militaire russes (GRU), a fait savoir vendredi le ministère des affaires étrangères.
• Le gouvernement allemand, qui accuse également les services de renseignement russes d’être à l’origine de cyberattaques , notamment contre des membres du Parti social-démocrate allemand (SPD), a quant à lui  annoncé vendredi  que le chargé d’affaires de l’ambassade de Russie avait été convoqué au ministère des affaires étrangères.

Tout le live

Une attaque de drone fait un blessé à Nikopol, selon les autorités locales

La ville de Nikopol a été la cible de drones samedi, a déclaré Serhi Lyssak , le gouverneur de l’oblast de Dnipropetrovsk. « Une femme de 57 ans a été blessée  », a-t-il ajouté. « Au total, dix-sept maisons et six dépendances ont été endommagées » à la suite de ces attaques.

Trois blessés dans un bombardement à Odessa, déclare la police nationale ukrainienne

Trois personnes ont été blessées, samedi, à la suite d’un bombardement à Odessa, a annoncé la police nationale ukrainienne. « Deux femmes ont été hospitalisées, un autre homme a reçu de l’aide sur place » , précise le communiqué .

Un bombardement blesse six personnes dans le district de Kharkiv, selon les autorités

Six personnes ont été blessées samedi après-midi à la suite du bombardement d’une entreprise civile dans le district industriel de Kharkiv, a annoncé Oleh Synehoubov, le gouverneur de la région. « Il s’agit de quatre femmes âgées de 39, 36, 21 et 18 ans, et de deux hommes de 21 ans. Les victimes présentent des blessures par explosifs. Toutes les victimes sont des employés de l’usine » , précise le communiqué .

Pour Kiev, l’avis de recherche contre Volodymyr Zelensky démontre le « désespoir de la propagande et de la machine étatique russes »

Le ministère des affaires étrangères ukrainien a affirmé que l’avis de recherche contre Volodymyr Zelensky démontrait le « désespoir de la propagande et de la machine étatique russes, qui ne sait plus quoi inventer pour attirer l’attention » .

Le ministère a rappelé que Vladimir Poutine faisait lui-même l’objet d’un mandat d’arrêt émis par la Cour pénale internationale (CPI) pour la « déportation » présumée en Russie de milliers d’enfants ukrainiens. Ce mandat est « réel » , contrairement aux « annonces russes sans valeur » , a estimé la diplomatie ukrainienne.

Des avis de recherche ont également été lancés contre le commandant des forces terrestres de Kiev, Oleksandr Pavliouk, et l’ancien président ukrainien Petro Porochenko, selon la base de données russe.

La Russie a lancé plus de 380 attaques contre des villes ukrainiennes cette semaine, affirme Volodymyr Zelensky

L’armée russe a mené plus de 380 attaques contre des villes et des régions ukrainiennes cette semaine, selon le président ukrainien, Volodymyr Zelensky, sur Telegram .

« Des décisions rapides et adéquates sur la défense aérienne de l’Ukraine et la fourniture rapide d’armes à nos soldats sont ce dont nous avons besoin aujourd’hui pour protéger des vies » , a-t-il déclaré.

Selon M. Zelensky, les oblasts de Kharkiv, Tchernihiv, Soumy, Donetsk, Zaporijia, Mykolaïv, Kherson et Odessa ont été touchés.

La Russie place Volodymyr Zelensky sur la liste des personnes recherchées

La Russie a lancé un avis de recherche contre le président ukrainien, Volodymyr Zelensky, sans rendre public son motif, selon une notice visible, samedi, sur le site du ministère de l’intérieur.

Le dirigeant est recherché « en vertu d’un article du code pénal » , peut-on lire dans ce court texte, qui ne dit rien d’autre sur la nature de ces accusations.

La Russie mène, depuis février 2022, une guerre contre l’Ukraine, qu’elle présente comme un combat contre un pouvoir « nazi ».

Volodymyr Zelensky est particulièrement pris pour cible par les responsables russes. Au lendemain du lancement de son assaut, le président Vladimir Poutine avait appelé l’armée ukrainienne à le renverser.

La liste des personnes recherchées par la Russie est très fournie et comprend des personnalités russes ou étrangères, notamment ukrainiennes.

Des explosions à Kharkiv, selon le maire de la ville

« Kharkiv a été provisoirement touchée. Soyez prudents et restez dans les abris » , alerte, sur Telegram samedi après-midi, Ihor Terekhov.

D’autres tirs de « missiles antiaériens » sur la ville « sont possibles » , a affirmé le maire de la deuxième plus grande ville d’Ukraine.

L’armée russe a attaqué des infrastructures énergétiques dans la région de Dnipro

Dans la nuit du 3 au 4 mai, l’armée russe a attaqué des infrastructures énergétiques dans la région de Dnipro, a rapporté le service presse du ministère de l’énergie . Une sous-station a été endommagée et deux mines ont été privées d’électricité.

Le système électrique ukrainien a donc reçu une aide d’urgence de la Pologne, de la Roumanie et de la Slovaquie. Des programmes de coupure de courant sont en place dans la région de Kharkiv et à Kryvy Rih.

La Russie dit avoir abattu quatre missiles de longue portée américains, lancés par l’Ukraine, au-dessus de la Crimée

Quatre missiles ATACMS, des projectiles de longue portée de conception américaine, ont été abattus dans le ciel de la Crimée par les forces de Moscou, a déclaré samedi le ministère de la défense, rapporté par l’agence de presse Reuters, sans fournir plus de précisions.

Un responsable américain déclarait en avril que ces missiles, qui peuvent atteindre une cible située à 300 kilomètres, ont été livrés discrètement ces dernières semaines par les Etats-Unis.

Lire aussi | Les Etats-Unis incluent des missiles ATACMS de longue portée dans leurs livraisons d’armes à l’Ukraine

L’ukraine affirme avoir abattu treize drones russes au cours de la nuit.

L’armée de l’air ukrainienne affirme avoir abattu de nombreux drones russes lancés « depuis la région de Belgorod ». « Dans la nuit du 4 mai, l’ennemi a attaqué avec treize drones de type « Shahed-131/136 » et quatre missiles guidés antiaériens S-300 » , ont rapporté les forces ukrainiennes dans un point quotidien publié sur Telegram .

Les treize drones ont été détruits dans les régions de Kharkiv et de Dnipropetrovsk « par des unités de missiles antiaériens de l’armée de l’air et des groupes de tir mobiles des forces de défense ukrainiennes » , a affirmé l’armée.

L'aide américaine est-elle arrivée ou non en Ukraine?

POINT SUR LES LIVRAISONS EN MUNITIONS et ÉQUIPEMENTS MILITAIRES ?

Bonjour Phil et DODUDODO78,

Selon The New York Times, l’Ukraine a reçu «  une cargaison de roquettes antiblindés, de missiles et d’obus d’artillerie de 155 millimètres » dimanche dernier : il s’agissait de la première tranche de l’aide militaire de 61 milliards de dollars approuvée par Joe Biden quelques jours auparavant.

Une deuxième cargaison contenant les mêmes armes est arrivée lundi, poursuit le quotidien américain, et des systèmes de défense antiaérienne Patriot envoyés d’Espagne ont rejoint la Pologne mardi, et devraient être transférés à l’Ukraine rapidement.

Toutefois, « les armes promises par les Etats-Unis, le Royaume-Uni et l’Allemagne (…) pourraient prendre des mois avant d’arriver en nombre suffisant pour renforcer les défenses de l’Ukraine sur le champ de bataille » , note The New York Times , citant des « responsables militaires » .

Les Etats-Unis et les membres du G7 discutent d’une aide financière de 50 milliards de dollars pour l’Ukraine

Les Etats-Unis sont en pourparlers avec des partenaires pour prendre la tête d’un groupe d’alliés qui accorderait jusqu’à 50 milliards de dollars d’aide à l’Ukraine. Cette somme serait remboursée par les bénéfices tirés des actifs souverains russes qui ont été gelés, et qui rapportent des intérêts, pour la plupart en Europe.

Ce plan fait notamment l’objet de discussions au sein du G7, et les Etats-Unis œuvrent pour qu’un accord soit conclu lors de la réunion des dirigeants du G7 en Italie en juin 2024, rapporte Bloomberg.

Interrogée sur ce type d’aide financière à l’Ukraine remboursée par l’Union européenne à l’aide des avoirs russes gelés, Janet Yellen, secrétaire d’Etat au Trésor américain, a déclaré : « C’est un sujet dont nous discutons. (…) Dans l’idéal, nous aimerions que l’ensemble du G7 participe à cette initiative, et non pas que les Etats-Unis fassent cavalier seul. » a-t-elle détaillé à Bloomberg vendredi.

Lire aussi | Guerre en Ukraine : « La confiscation des avoirs publics russes constituerait une avance sur les réparations »

Moscou met en garde les etats-unis, le royaume-uni et l’union européenne en cas d’attaque contre le pont de crimée.

La Russie répondra à toute agression contre la Crimée et le pont de Crimée par des représailles terribles, a déclaré Maria Zakharova, la porte-parole du ministère des affaires étrangères russe.

« Je voudrais une fois de plus avertir Washington, Londres et Bruxelles que toute action agressive contre la Crimée est non seulement vouée à l’échec, mais qu’elle recevra également des représailles qui seront écrasantes » , a-t-elle déclaré, cité par les agences russes .

Volodymyr Zelensky détaille les points de discussion principaux de la conférence pour la paix en Ukraine, qui se tiendra en Suisse

Le président ukrainien, Volodymyr Zelensky, a détaillé vendredi les points principaux sur lesquels l’Ukraine veut se concentrer lors de la conférence pour la paix en Ukraine organisée en Suisse les 15 et 16 juin 2024. Parmi eux : l’énergie et la sécurité nucléaire, les questions de la libre navigation et des échanges, un échange de prisonniers sur le principe de « tous contre tous » et le retour des enfants qui ont été expulsés de force vers la Russie.

Selon lui, « si tous les pays soutiennent ces premiers points, il y aura des développements détaillés et leur solution fera l’objet d’une médiation avec les pays alliés de la partie russe » .

La Russie, qui n’a pas été invitée au sommet, a déclaré que ces pourparlers sur la paix en Ukraine n’auraient pas de sens sans la participation de la Russie. La porte-parole du ministère des affaires étrangères russe, Maria Zakharova, a déclaré que toute action contre l’Ukraine qui « ignore la position de la Russie » est « déconnectée de la réalité » .

Bonjour. Quelle est la réaction Russe aux déclarations récentes de Cameron?

Bonjour Johnjohn,

Le Kremlin a qualifié d’ « escalade directe des tensions autour du conflit » la déclaration du ministre des affaires étrangères britannique, David Cameron, selon laquelle l’armée ukrainienne peut utiliser les armes que le Royaume-Uni lui fournit pour atteindre des cibles en territoire russe.

« Il s’agit d’une escalade directe de la tension autour du conflit ukrainien, qui pourrait potentiellement constituer un danger pour la sécurité européenne », a déclaré le porte-parole du Kremlin, Dmitri Peskov. « C’est là que nous constatons une tendance dangereuse à l’escalade des tensions dans les déclarations officielles », a-t-il ajouté.

La porte-parole du ministère des affaires étrangères russe, Maria Zakharova, a ajouté : « C’est la première fois qu’un homme politique occidental reconnaît aussi franchement ce qui est depuis longtemps un secret bien connu de la majorité des pays du monde : L’Occident mène une guerre secrète contre la Russie avec l’aide des Ukrainiens. »

La France apporte son soutien à l’Allemagne et à la République tchèque face aux cyberattaques russes

Le ministère des affaires étrangères français a apporté vendredi « son plein soutien à l’Allemagne et à la République tchèque, qui ont récemment attribué à la Russie une campagne de cyberattaques visant différentes institutions à travers le mode opératoire APT28 ».

Le groupe APT28 est accusé d’être responsable de dizaines de cyberattaques dans le monde. Egalement connu sous le nom de Fancy Bear, il est soupçonné d’être lié aux services de renseignements militaires russes (GRU).

« Cette menace est connue de la France ; en octobre 2023, l’Anssi [Agence nationale de la sécurité des systèmes d’information] a détaillé les tactiques, techniques et procédures de ce mode opératoire qui a également ciblé des organisations françaises, dont des entités gouvernementales, des entreprises, des universités ainsi que des instituts de recherche et des think tanks » , détaille le Quai d’Orsay dans un communiqué.

Le ministère assure que « la France met tout en œuvre pour renforcer sa capacité à s’adapter aux cybermenaces » , notamment à l’approche des élections européennes et des Jeux olympiques et paralympiques de Paris.

Lire aussi | L’Allemagne attribue à la Russie une cyberattaque contre le SPD en janvier 2023

L’ukraine entre dans une « nouvelle étape de la guerre », selon volodymyr zelensky.

« Aujourd’hui, c’est déjà le 800ᵉ jour de la guerre. C’est un chemin extrêmement difficile et dur que notre Etat a dû emprunter, et devra encore parcourir pour mettre fin à la guerre dans des conditions équitables, dans les conditions de l’Ukraine », a déclaré le président ukrainien Volodymyr Zelensky aux gardes-frontières lors d’une visite à Khmelnytsky.

« Aujourd’hui, nous sommes confrontés à une nouvelle étape de la guerre. L’occupant se prépare à tenter d’étendre ses actions offensives », a-t-il poursuivi, déclarant à nouveau que l’Ukraine et ses alliés doivent faire « tout leur possible pour contrecarrer les plans russes ».

L’incendie dans une usine métallurgique à Berlin n’affectera pas la production de système de défense aérienne IRIS-T, assure le groupe Diehl

L’incendie qui s’est déclenché dans les locaux de l’entreprise Diehl Metal Applications ( 📍 ), situés dans un quartier de Berlin, à Lichterfelde, n’affectera pas la production des systèmes de défense aérienne IRIS-T, qui sont notamment fournis à l’Ukraine, a rapporté l’hebdomadaire allemand Der Spiegel , citant des sources au sein du groupe allemand Diehl.

Le groupe Diehl a déclaré que l’usine berlinoise touchée était spécialisée dans la galvanisation, c’est-à-dire l’application d’un revêtement protecteur sur des produits en acier destinés à l’industrie automobile. « La filiale de défense n’a pas été touchée » , précise le groupe au Spiegel .

Plus de 400 munitions contenant des substances chimiques ont été utilisées par les forces russes en avril, selon l’armée ukrainienne

Au cours du mois dernier, les forces russes ont utilisé à 444 reprises des « munitions contenant des substances chimiques dangereuses » lancées par des « groupes mobiles » et des « forces de défense », rapportent les forces armées ukrainiennes sur Telegram.

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Lire tous nos articles, analyses et reportages sur la guerre en Ukraine

Les reportages, analyses et décryptages du « Monde »

Enrôlé dans l’armée, « Pacha », jeune Russe apparu en couverture de « M », est mort

Les Etats-Unis incluent des missiles ATACMS de longue portée dans leurs livraisons d’armes à l’Ukraine

Les pilotes ukrainiens de F-16 formés par les Européens ne seront pas prêts avant fin 2024

Oksana Leuta et la guerre, à la scène comme en Ukraine

Les bombes planantes, « arme absolue » des forces russes, ou révélateur du sous-équipement des Ukrainiens ?

A Odessa, quatre cadettes de l’Académie maritime dans la tempête de la guerre en Ukraine

En Russie, le recrutement des prisonniers dans l’armée pour aller combattre se généralise

Le long combat des Ukrainiennes victimes de violences sexuelles, des « survivantes » dans un pays où le viol est tabou

Quel est le coût climatique des guerres ?

Nos réponses à vos questions les plus fréquentes

Comment Moscou et Kiev utilisent des drones ?

Depuis plusieurs mois, la guerre des drones entre la Russie et l'Ukraine a pris une ampleur inégalée. Selon un rapport, publié en mai 2023 par un think tank britannique spécialisé dans les questions de défense, les Ukrainiens perdaient quelque 10   000   drones par mois sur le champ de bataille, soit plus de 300 par jour. A titre de comparaison, l'armée française dispose d'un peu plus de 3   000   avions sans pilote dans ses arsenaux.

Ukrainiens et Russes utilisent essentiellement de petits UAV ( unmanned aerial vehicle , en anglais) d'origine civile, bon marché et disponibles en grand nombre. Ils servent à observer le champ de bataille et à guider les troupes ou les tirs d'artillerie ; certains sont aussi bricolés pour porter de petites charges explosives, larguées ensuite sur des tranchées ou des blindés.

Moins nombreux, les drones-kamikazes jouent également un rôle important. Dotés d’une charge explosive, ces UAV sont lancés au-dessus de la ligne de front sans objectif attribué à l’avance. Moscou utilise des drones russes Lancet-3, ainsi que des Shahed-136, de fabrication iranienne. Dépourvue d’une flotte de guerre digne de ce nom, l’Ukraine nargue l’ennemi avec des engins maritimes sans pilote, des petits kayaks guidés à distance et chargés d’explosifs (450 kilos de TNT).

Signe de l’importance des drones pour leurs opérations, les Ukrainiens comme les Russes se sont organisés pour pouvoir alimenter leurs troupes dans la durée, non seulement en achetant en masse des drones civils sur le marché, mais aussi en mettant sur pied des capacités de production endogènes. Balbutiante au début de la guerre du Donbass, déclenchée il y a dix ans, l’industrie nationale ukrainienne est depuis montée en puissance. A la fin d'août, le ministre de la transformation numérique ukrainien a annoncé qu’une copie du drone russe Lancet avait été mise au point et serait bientôt lancée sous le nom de Peroun, dieu slave de la foudre et du tonnerre. 

Entravée par les sanctions occidentales, qui limitent son approvisionnement en composants électroniques, la Russie est plus à la peine. Mais, selon les services de renseignement américains, Moscou aurait toutefois commencé la construction d’une usine dans la zone économique spéciale d’Alabouga, afin d’y fabriquer des drones-kamikazes de conception iranienne, comme les Shahed-136.

Que sait-on des stocks de missiles russes ?

Il est très difficile, voire impossible, de connaître l’état actuel des stocks de missiles de l’armée russe. Les services de renseignement ukrainiens communiquent régulièrement sur le sujet, mais leurs estimations sont sujettes à caution. 

Selon Andri Ioussov, porte-parole de la direction générale du renseignement du ministère de la défense (GUR), cité par Liga.net , l’armée russe disposait de 2   300   missiles balistiques ou de croisière avant la guerre et en avait encore plus de 900 au début de l’année. A ce total, s’ajoutent, d’après le porte-parole, une dizaine de milliers de missiles antiaériens S-300, d’une portée de l’ordre de 120   kilomètres, et un stock important de S-400, déclinaison plus récente d’une portée trois fois supérieure. En août, Vadym Skibitsky, numéro deux du GUR, avançait le chiffre de 585   missiles d’une portée supérieure à 500   kilomètres.

En ce qui concerne les capacités de production, elles seraient passées à une centaine de missiles balistiques ou de croisière par mois, selon  plusieurs experts . En octobre, le GUR évaluait cette production à 115   exemplaires.

La Russie aurait, par ailleurs, acquis des missiles à courte portée en Iran et en Corée du Nord et continuerait à s’en procurer. Selon l’agence Reuters , qui cite plusieurs sources iraniennes, 400 missiles iraniens de la famille Fateh-110 (300 à 700   kilomètres) lui auraient été livrés depuis janvier, date à laquelle un accord aurait été conclu. On ignore combien de missiles nord-coréens la Russie s’est procuré, mais 24 ont été tirés en Ukraine entre le 30   décembre   2023 et le 7   février   2024, selon le procureur général, Andriy Kostin. D’après les experts qui ont analysé les débris et les trajectoires, il s’agit probablement de KN-23 et KN-24 d’une portée de l’ordre de 400   kilomètres.

Quid des avions de combat F-16 ?

Accédant à une demande de long-terme de la part du président ukrainien, les Etats-Unis ont, en août 2023, donné leur accord au transfert d’avions de combat F-16 à l’Ukraine. S’il existe une flotte potentielle de plus de 300   F-16 dans neuf pays d’Europe – en Belgique, au Danemark, en Grèce, aux Pays-Bas et au Portugal, entre autres –, tous les Etats qui en disposent ne sont pas en mesure d’en céder du jour au lendemain. 

Volodymyr Zelensky avait avancé le chiffre de 42   F-16 promis par les alliés occidentaux à Kiev, mais cette donnée n’a pas été confirmée. Le Danemark en a promis 19. Les 6   premiers ne devaient pas être livrés avant la fin de 2023, 8   autres suivront en 2024 et 5   en 2025, selon la première ministre danoise, Mette Frederiksen. Les Pays-Bas, qui en ont promis aussi, disposent de 42   unités, mais ils n’ont pas précisé combien ils comptaient en céder.

Par ailleurs, les pilotes ukrainiens doivent être formés à ces avions de combat américains. Onze pays alliés de Kiev se sont engagés à prendre en charge des pilotes. L’OTAN a estimé que les soldats ukrainiens ne seraient en mesure d’utiliser les avions en situation de combat qu’au début de 2024, d’autres experts visent plutôt l’été de la même année.

Quel soutien militaire ses alliés fournissent-ils à Kiev ?

Deux ans après le début de la guerre à grande échelle, la dynamique du soutien occidental à Kiev est en perte de vitesse : les aides nouvellement engagées sont en baisse sur la période d’août 2023 à janvier 2024 par rapport à la même période de l’année précédente, selon le dernier rapport de l’Institut Kiel , publié en février 2024. Et cette tendance pourrait se poursuivre,  le Sénat américain peinant à faire voter des aides , et l’Union européenne (UE) ayant eu toutes les difficultés à faire adopter une aide de 50 milliards le 1 er  février 2024, du fait du blocage hongrois. A noter, ces deux paquets d’aide ne sont pas encore pris en compte dans le dernier bilan fait par l’Institut Kiel, qui s’arrête en janvier 2024.

Les données de l’institut allemand montrent que le nombre de donateurs se réduit et se concentre autour d’un noyau de pays : les Etats-Unis, l’Allemagne, les pays du nord et de l’est de l’Europe, qui promettent à la fois une aide financière élevée et de l’armement de pointe. Au total, depuis février 2022, les pays qui soutiennent Kiev se sont engagés à hauteur d’au moins 276 milliards d’euros sur le plan militaire, financier ou humanitaire.

En valeur absolue, les pays les plus riches se sont montrés les plus généreux. Les Etats-Unis sont de loin les premiers donateurs, avec plus de 75 milliards d’euros d’aide annoncés, dont 46,3 milliards en aide militaire. Les pays de l’Union européenne ont annoncé à la fois des aides bilatérales (64,86 milliards d’euros) et des aides communes provenant des fonds de l’Union européenne (93,25 milliards d’euros), pour un total de 158,1 milliards d’euros.

Lorsque l’on rapporte ces contributions au produit intérieur brut (PIB) de chacun des pays donateurs, le classement change. Les Etats-Unis rétrogradent au vingtième rang (0,32 % de leur PIB), bien après des pays voisins de l’Ukraine ou d’anciennes républiques soviétiques amies. L’Estonie prend la tête des aides rapportées au PIB avec 3,55 %, suivie du Danemark (2,41 %) et de la Norvège (1,72 %). Le reste du top 5 est complété par la Lituanie (1,54 %) et la Lettonie (1,15 %). Les trois Etats baltes, qui ont tous des frontières communes avec la Russie ou son alliée la Biélorussie, font partie des donateurs les plus généreux depuis le début du conflit.

Au classement du pourcentage de PIB, la France est vingt-septième, ayant engagé avec 0,07 % de son PIB, juste derrière la Grèce (0,09 %). L’aide fournie par Paris est en recul constant depuis le début de l’invasion de l’Ukraine par la Russie – la France était vingt-quatrième en avril 2023, et treizième à l’été 2022.

Que sait-on des tensions à la frontière entre l'Ukraine et la Pologne ?

Depuis plusieurs mois, les relations sont difficiles entre l'Ukraine et la Pologne. Le transit des céréales en provenance d'Ukraine est au cœur des tensions. Au printemps 2022, la Commission européenne avait mis en place des «   voies de solidarité   »  pour faciliter l'évacuation et la vente de produits agricoles ukrainiens, sans droits de douane, vers l'Afrique et le Moyen-Orient. Mais «   depuis le début du conflit, ce sont près de 50 % des céréales ukrainiennes qui transitent ou achèvent leur parcours dans l'Union européenne (UE), selon la Fondation Farm, cercle de réflexion autour des questions agricoles mondiales. Or, ces céréales affichent un prix beaucoup plus bas que le blé produit en UE, notamment dans les pays d'Europe centrale   ».

Arguant que ces céréales déstabilisent le marché local et donc les revenus de leurs agriculteurs, la Pologne, la Bulgarie, la Hongrie, la Roumanie et la Slovaquie avaient bloqué unilatéralement leurs importations en avril 2023. Un embargo que Bruxelles avait accepté, à condition qu'il n'empêche pas le transit vers d'autres pays et qu'il ne dure que quatre mois. Estimant que le problème de fond n'avait pas été réglé, Varsovie a décidé de ne pas rouvrir sa frontière aux céréales ukrainiennes à la fin de l'été, alors que Bruxelles estimait que l'embargo n'avait plus de raison d'être car ses analyses montraient «   qu'il n'y avait plus de distorsion des marchés nationaux pour les céréales   » .

Les agriculteurs polonais bloquent depuis la frontière entre l'Ukraine et la Pologne pour empêcher les camions ukrainiens d'entrer sur le territoire national, les protestataires réclamant un  «   embargo complet   » sur les produits agricoles et alimentaires ukrainiens. Ils dénoncent notamment l'explosion de leurs coûts de production alors que silos et entrepôts sont saturés et que les prix sont au plus bas. Le président ukrainien estimait au début de 2024 que le blocus de la frontière polonaise témoignait de « l’érosion de la solidarité » envers son pays, et a réclamé des pourparlers avec la Pologne.  « Seul Moscou se réjouit » de ces tensions, a-t-il aussi affirmé, dénonçant  « l’apparition de slogans ouvertement pro-Poutine ».

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